The Future of Cyber Warfare and its Impact on Civilian Infrastructure

Cyber warfare presents complex and new attack vectors in adversarial conflict. For this article, cyber warfare is characterized by the use of digital attacks to damage or disrupt information systems, critical infrastructure, and other computer networks (Mladenović et al., 2012). Invicta Solutions Group knows that as technology advances, so too does the sophistication and frequency of cyber attacks, making it imperative to understand the current state of cyber warfare and its potential future developments.

Cyber warfare is gaining more importance in the modern era as a crucial element of national security strategy. This is evident from the lens of the U.S. National Security Strategy, which identifies how foreign adversaries have longstanding efforts to destabilize their neighbors using intelligence and cyber capabilities (U.S. National Security Strategy, 2022). This evolution is driven by several factors, including the growing dependence on information systems and the relatively low cost and high impact of cyber operations compared to traditional tactics.

Future attacks will likely blend cyber operations with traditional tactics in a hybrid warfare model (Kim et al., 2021). This model is likely to target civilian economic, political, and environmental digital assets to disrupt the population. In recent events, such as the attack against the Colonial Pipeline, civilian organizations, and key infrastructure are rapidly becoming targets of cyber warfare due to their crucial significance in both national security and day-to-day operations (Giles & Hartmann, 2021). The susceptibility of these industries arises from their significant value and inherent vulnerabilities, which can be exploited by a range of adversaries, including state-sponsored actors and independent hackers. Civilian telecommunications and supply chain infrastructures have emerged as a primary objective in cyber warfare. The COVID-19 epidemic underscored the crucial reliance on communication systems, as governments, businesses, and individuals greatly depended on these channels for operational and governing support (Giles & Hartmann, 2021).  Adversaries, have escalated their efforts to exploit weaknesses in civilian internet and telecommunications infrastructure in order to establish control over information. These actions have the potential to disrupt society and the functioning of the government significantly.

As cyber warfare evolves, several key trends and technologies are expected to shape its future. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning are set to revolutionize cyber attacks by enabling automated threats and Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs). These attacks are often state-sponsored and designed to infiltrate and remain within a network undetected for extended periods, gathering intelligence or preparing for a strategic strike. Implementing these capabilities allows adversaries to analyze vast amounts of data at speeds unattainable by human operators, enhancing offensive cyber capabilities.

The global nature of cyber threats has led to an international cyber arms race, with nations investing heavily in both offensive and defensive cyber capabilities. This arms race is driving rapid advancements in cyber technologies and tactics, making the cyber domain increasingly contested. As cyber threats grow, there is an increasing need for international cooperation and robust legal frameworks to manage cyber conflicts. Current legislation often needs to be revised to address the unique challenges posed by cyber warfare, necessitating new laws and treaties (Wu & Huang, 2020).

In conclusion, the future of cyber warfare will be defined by the integration of advanced technologies, the development of hybrid tactics, and an ongoing global cyber arms race. As nations continue to enhance their cyber capabilities, the nature of warfare will increasingly shift towards digital attacks. This will pose new challenges and opportunities for international security. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for preparing and mitigating the potential impacts of future cyber conflicts. Preparing our organization by having adequate cyber hygiene and meeting regulatory compliance standards is more evident now than it ever has been.

References:

Giles, K., & Hartmann, K. (2021). Adversary Targeting of Civilian Telecommunications Infrastructure. https://doi.org/10.23919/cycon51939.2021.9468303  
Kim, S., Kim, S., Park, B. J., Jeong, U. S., Choo, H., Yun, J., & Kim, J. (2021). Cyber Electronic Warfare Technologies and Development Directions. The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science, 32(2), 119–126. https://doi.org/10.5515/kjkiees.2021.32.2.119
The White House. (2022). National security strategy.  https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/8-November-Combined-PDF-for-Upload.pdf
Wu, Y., & Huang, Y. (2020). Will Cyber Warfare Become a Threat to Contemporary International Security? Proceedings of the 2020 4th International Seminar on Education, Management and Social Sciences (ISEMSS 2020). https://doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.200826.007